Tag Archives: report

Find me at #EGU17

It’s almost time to go to Vienna again for the 2017 General Assembly of the European Geoscience Union, or #EGU17. It’s promising to be another awesome week of science, schnitzel, and the collection of cold bugs from around the globe. Incredibly, it will be my fifth EGU, and I have the pleasure of being joined by a couple of first-timers from my research group – I’m looking forward to showing them the ropes.

I have two oral abstracts and a poster at this year’s meeting –

EGU2017-15699 | Orals | GM3.3/SSS3.13/TS4.6

LEMSI – The Landscape Evolution Model Sensitivity Investigation
Christopher Skinner, Tom Coulthard, Wolfgang Schwanghart, and Marco Van De Wiel
Wed, 26 Apr, 16:30–16:45, Room N1

This talk will show the results from our global sensitivity analysis of the CAESAR-Lisflood model. This has been a large piece of modelling work, and seems to have been going forever. Our computers have been busy for well over a year, so it’s great to get the results out there.

EGU2017-12624 | Posters | GM3.3/SSS3.13/TS4.6 | | Highlight

Influence of Rainfall Product on Hydrological and Sediment Outputs when Calibrating the STREAP Rainfall Generator for the CAESAR-Lisflood Landscape Evolution Model
Christopher Skinner, Nadav Peleg, and Niall Quinn
Wed, 26 Apr, 17:30–19:00, Hall X2

This poster has been selected by the session conveners as being of public interest. We’ve used a rainfall generator to produce ensembles of high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall, and used this to drive the CAESAR-Lisflood model – the results are very interesting indeed!

EGU2017-764 | Orals | EOS5

SeriousGeoGames – Geoscience Virtual Reality Experiences for Festival Settings
Christopher Skinner
Thu, 27 Apr, 10:45–11:00, Room L4/5

My final talk is something a little different, and will be summarising the SeriousGeoGames project the best I can in 12 minutes! I will show a little of Humber in a Box and Flash Flood!, and sum up their successes. For a preview, check out the brand new Flash Flood! YouTube Free60 –

 Please do come find me and say “hi”, or “Oi, your research is rubbish”, and if you have something you think I should see, let me know.

See you in Vienna!

OTD Humber Storm Surge – 05/12/2013

No score and three years ago the storm surge of December 5th 2013 swept along the East Coast of England, and the Humber Estuary. There was flooding in Grimsby and Hull, and the port at Immingham was also badly flooded. One of the worst affected areas of the village of South Ferriby on the South Bank of the Humber, a few miles away from my home town of Barton-upon-Humber.

Since the event, my colleagues and I have done a lot of research and work based on this event. This post will briefly highlight some of this, how you can find out out more, and what we have planned for the future.

IMG_3862

At the time I was working on a project called Dynamic Humber helping to develop the CAESAR-Lisflood model. Although the original intention was to use the model to predict long-term geomorphic trends in the Estuary, basically how we can expect the mud and sediments to move and change over time, the storm surge changed the focus to flood risk.

We published our work on this in early 2015 – see the academic paper here.

The modelling technique was developed for other areas by my colleague Jorge Ramirez, and this research can be seen here.

This research led to us using our modelling to help the Environment Agency, and this work is ongoing still. We are also seeking to further the work of simulating the sediment processes within the Estuary,and understanding how this might influence future flood risk.

IMG_3816

One of the enduring images of the event was the breach it punched in the spit-like feature at mouth, Spurn Point. For nearly two centuries Spurn has essentially been a man-made structure, and its origins, true nature, and hence its future, are largely a mystery. Read more on this here.

In Easter 2015, a PhD project was begun to try and model the future of Spurn Point, merging a model of the North Sea with our model of Humber.

Finally, SeriousGeoGames emerged as a direct consequence of this event and our modelling of it. The first application, Humber in a Box, shows a simplified version of our Humber model in an attractive, immersive, virtual reality environment. By raising the sea level we can see how flood risk in the Estuary is likely to change over time.

Humber in a Box

If you have a Cardboard-style headset, try the YouTube demo here.

I’m currently working with some talented students from SEED Software on the second iteration of Humber in a Box, called TideBox. We hope to make the application more ‘self-led’ and more generic about estuaries and tide, making more accessible.

There are likely to be lots of exciting developments in 2017 and I will bring you them as soon as I can.

 

 

National Trust’s Shifting Shores and the Humber Region

Today the National Trust released their report – “Shifting Shores : Playing our part at the coast” – you can read the BBC’s coverage of it here. The main message from the report is stark – the UK is ignoring the risk of coastal erosion and flooding, and the threat of rising sea levels. They also advocate for increased investment in soft, or natural, coastal defences, and highlight successful schemes.

For the Holderness Coast this is particularly acute, with it often claimed to be “Europe’s fastest eroding coastline”. Whether enough is being done to protect it is a matter of opinion – to protect the whole length from any erosion just isn’t practical, but this is little comfort to those who live in view of the North Sea. With this area beyond the realms of my previous study, I am unsure of the plans and policies in place to address future coastal erosion and flooding along this stretch of coast.

South of Withernsea

End of hard defences on the Holderness Coast and the erosion beyond

Further down, the breach in Spurn Point is a sharp reminder of just what the sea can do to hard defences we have put in place. Some would argue that the natural environment is being restored here by the sea, but the long-term impact of leaving Spurn to its fate is simply not known – it isn’t, however, being ignored.

In the Humber Estuary itself, probably beyond the intended scope of the National Trust report, the risk of coastal flooding became all too apparent on December 5th 2013. Before then the Humber Flood Risk Management Strategy had already been put in place by the Environment Agency, and work is under way to review this based on the lessons learnt on that night. This plan details the steps to be taken to ensure the Humber’s defences are improved and keep pace with raising sea levels, and rightly involves a sensible mix of soft and hard defences.

If you want to learn more about flood risk and sea level rise in the Humber Estuary, try Humber in a Box here.

To learn more about your flood risk and to sign up for flood warnings, visit the #FloodAware website, here.