I’m currently in the middle of testing random parameter sets in the CAESAR-Lisflood model – this is to try and recreate the 2007 flash flood in Thinhope Burn, the geomorphic change during it and since. I’m using a nested approach, trying 1000 sets of parameters on the whole catchment, those which seems to work I will take and apply to a higher resolution reach scale simulation.
As the video below shows, appearances can be deceiving!
I should point out that the digital elevation model (DEM) I’m using here is a bit rough (to put it diplomatically). There is no in-channel lateral erosion rate in this parameter set, so channel movements are due to lateral erosion by the model. Stills are taken every ten days of the simulation.
Despite it’s obvious weak points, the behaviour of the river very clearly alters after the flooding which is what I am trying to reproduce.Thinhope Burn in 2014.
Recent high tides have taken their toll on Spurn, washing away the beach across the breach, leaving only a bed of loose gravel. It is now impassable even to the off-road 4×4’s used to ferry staff to and from ABP’s signalling station.
It has led to discussion in the local media over whether Spurn is still a spit, or is it more accurate now to call it an island. I don’t think we’re there yet, but the direction it’s heading it probably isn’t going to be long.
So, the many thousands of abstracts for the American Geoscience Union’s Fall Meeting have been judged, and I have been handed a Poster and an Oral Presentation spots. If you’re in San Francisco for the meeting and would like to chat about my research, just hunt me down.
Poster Presentation –
“The Role of Spatio-Temporal Resolution of Rainfall Inputs on a Landscape Evolution Model”
Wednesday 16 December 2015 – 08:00-12:20
EP31B: Landscape Evolution from a Critical Zone Science Perspective I Posters
Moscone South, Poster Hall
Oral Presentation –
“Humber-in-a-Box : Gamification to Communicate Coastal Flood Risk in the Face of Rising Seas”
Friday 18 December 2015 – 14:10-14:25
ED53F: Amazing Games and Superb Simulations for Science Education II
Moscone South, 303
I’m really looking forward to getting out there and showing off my research to the biggest event in our circles. I’m also really excited about talking about Humber-in-a-Box for the first time too, and seeing all of the other presentations in the Amazing Games session.
Those who have read some of my previous blog posts, both here and on GEES-ology, will know I have an interest in Spurn Point, a spit at the Mouth of the Humber. This post in particular details the breaching of the Spurn defences after the 5th December 2013 storm surge.
I was really interested then when my Mother-in-Law sent me pictures of some old public notice boards they found in Portsmouth. They provide information about Hurst Spit which, reading the boards, seems to be similar to Spurn Point and at the Mouth of the Solent.
Some of the ideas about how it formed seem very similar to George De Boer’s ideas for the formation, and future, of Spurn. A similar storm even caused a very familiar looking breach in 1989. However, unlike Spurn Point, there seemed to be a will and a plan to maintain the structure there.
I think this is definitely one to look at further to see if any parallels can be drawn.
I’m very pleased to say that we are inviting abstracts for the session – “Flash Floods : Advances in Monitoring, Modelling and Integrated Management” – at this year’s AGU Fall Meeting in San Fransisco. The session description is below, and to submit an abstract, please use this link.
“H046. Flash Floods: Advances in Monitoring, Modeling and Integrated Management
The occurrence of high intensity rainfall events and flash floods are predicted to increase under our changing climate, resulting in tremendous losses and damage globally. Yet our understanding of the hydrodynamic and geomorphological processes occurring during these extreme floods have been limited by difficulties in making direct observations and elaborate simulation. Recent advances in monitoring techniques are now enabling these highly transient processes to be successfully quantified, allowing their incorporation into hydrodynamic models. These advancements, in conjunction with integrated flood management strategies are required to ensure the harmonious coexistence between water and society, and to support sustainable socio-economic development. In this session, we welcome presentations that provide: i) methodological advancements in flash flood monitoring; ii) new insights into the hydro-geomorphological processes occurring during flash floods; iii) the incorporation of this new process knowledge to inform and validate modeling applications and; iv) advanced management of flash flood hazards.
Confirmed Invited Speakers:
Professor Paul Bates (University of Bristol)
Dr Joel P Johnson (University of Texas at Austin)
Dr Matt Perks (Newcastle University)
Dr Chris Skinner (Hull University)
Professor Qihua Ran (Zhejiang University)
Professor Xudong Fu (Tsinghua University)”
If you have any question, please contact myself or one of my co-conveners. I look forward to reading your abstracts!