Predicting the Eurovision 2016 Winners #Eurovision

It’s been a few years since I’ve had a chance to write a blog before Eurovision week. I make no secret about my love of the Song Contest, and I also make no secret about the fact that my predictions are always spectacularly wrong. In this blog, I will detail my simple methodology for predicting the winners, and also some idea of where the UK entry might place (Spoiler – somewhere near the bottom). Along the way, I will pick out some of my favourites and thoughts on the entries.

However, before I start I want to take a moment to share my all time Eurovision favourite – Lena. It’s been difficult to narrow down a single song to share, but I’ve decided to go with this one where Lena has arranged to meet Bert and Ernie (out of off of Sesame Street), who have a surprisingly advanced grasp of German. I don’t really know what is going on but I gather that Bert is late, which is odd because I’ve always thought he was very punctual. Anyway, here’s Lena, Bert and Ernie.

Methodology

My methodology is very simple. Last weekend I watched each entry on YouTube on the official channel. As I did I recorded the number of views, likes and dislikes that each video had received. I used these to calculate two values, a Score and a Ratio.

Score = (Views * (Likes – Dislikes)) / 1000000000

Ratio = ((Likes – Dislikes) / Views) * 10000

Each entry will be rated using both.

The Big 5 plus Sweden

The Big 5 are the five countries which fund a European-wide broadcasting network through the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) – the original contest was conceived as a test for this. These countries, plus last year’s winners and hosts, automatically go through to the final. This is fortunate for the UK as it spares us the ignominy of going out at the Semi-Final stage every year.

The stand out performer of this group of six is France, with the most views, the highest score and the highest ratio – it looks set to do well.

The entry I have chosen to highlight in this section is Germany’s. I quite like the song and the singer looks like a love-child between Ash Ketchum and Hello Kitty. She’s also called Jamie-Lee like one of my nieces so I can use that to wind her up. Due to a lack of views it has a low Score but a decent Ratio.

Semi-Final 1

Using Score the following countries would be eliminated – Austria, Iceland, Estonia, Montenegro, Finland, Moldova, San Marino and Croatia.

Using Ratio the following countries would be eliminated – Montenegro, Armenia, Estonia, Moldova, Finland, Iceland, Malta and San Marino.

My selection for this section is San Marino’s entry. This man’s voice is exceptionally creepy, it doesn’t just make my skin crawl, it makes my bowels crawl. You could use listening to him with headphones to replace waterboarding. Thankfully, it looks to be going out very quickly.

Semi-Final 2

Using Score the following countries would be eliminated – Belarus, Ireland, Albania, Norway, Slovenia, Switzerland, Latvia and Georgia.

Using Ratio the following countries would be eliminated – Denmark, Norway, Georgia, Belgium, Latvia, Switzerland, Slovenia and Albania.

I’m very surprised Belarus has not performed better considering he says he will be performing naked surrounded by wolves – this is surely Eurovision-fodder, but the YouTube stats suggest it just isn’t resonating with the public.

My pick of the entries here is Georgia. Set to go out, the song is a bit dull, it does have some mad scientists in the video.

The Grand Final

Using Score the Top 5 looks like – Poland, France, Australia, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Using Ratio the Top 5 looks like – Cyprus, Croatia, Bulgaria, Israel and Austria.

As Cyprus’ entry tops the Ratio table and the song is also pretty good and catchy, which goes a long way, there’s a small chance it might actually win it. Here is our 2016 Eurovision Winner –

My Earworm Choice

Greece – It’s like a mash up between Baywatch and 300 and keeps going around and around my head.

The UK’s Prospects

Being in the Big 5 saves us the blushes of an early Semi-Final Brexit. Sadly, our song is pretty dull and out of touch of even British tastes, let along European tastes.

Score places it in 15th (which would be doing very well), whilst Ratio plants it firmly at the bottom of the table. It won’t be nil poit, but it won’t be much higher.

History is also not on our side, as the chart shows below –

UK Entries

I’m not sure what happened in or around 2003 to cause such a sudden downturn in our fortunes, but it doesn’t look like abating anytime soon. Maybe we should try putting in a decent song for a change.

Thank you for reading – I expect none of the above to actually happen. Belarus plans to be naked and Russia are the bookies’ favourite…

See you in Cyprus in 2017!

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